Research on the Development Status of China's Photovoltaic Cell Industry

1. The global photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, and the demand for photovoltaic cells in the market is strong

In recent years, global climate change and increasing environmental pollution have become highly concerned issues for countries around the world. In order to address climate change and promote green and low-carbon development, as of September 2023, more than 150 countries have made carbon neutrality commitments, and the development of renewable energy represented by photovoltaics has become the mainstream direction of global energy transformation. In this context, the global photovoltaic industry is facing significant development opportunities, and the market is developing rapidly. Data shows that in recent years, the global installed capacity of photovoltaics has continued to rise, reaching 446GW in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 88.98%.

Photovoltaic cells are devices that can directly convert light energy into electrical energy. They are a core component of the photovoltaic industry chain, and the technical route and process level directly affect the power generation efficiency and service life of photovoltaic systems. Benefiting from the rapid development of the global photovoltaic industry, the demand for photovoltaic cells in the market is strong, driving the continuous increase of production capacity and output. By 2023, they will reach 1032 GW and 643.6 GW respectively, an increase of 76.99% and 75.8% year-on-year. At the COP28 conference held in November 2023, over 100 countries agreed to double the global installed capacity of renewable energy generation by 2030, reaching at least 11000 GW. This also means that the future development space of the global photovoltaic industry will be even broader, and there is great potential for the development of photovoltaic cells.

2. China's photovoltaic cell production capacity and output have been increasing year by year, and its share in the global market continues to rise

Driven by the strategic goal of achieving carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, China's photovoltaic industry has entered a fast lane in recent years, with the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics rapidly increasing from 129.4GW in 2017 to 609.5GW in 2023. Driven by the rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry, the photovoltaic cell industry has also experienced rapid growth, with the supply scale continuously expanding. Data shows that in 2023, its production capacity and output will reach 929.9 GW and 591.3 GW respectively, an increase of 83.96% and 78.86% year-on-year.

China is the world's largest market for photovoltaic cells, and its production capacity and output have continued to increase in recent years, rising to 90.11% and 91.87% respectively in 2023. This also means that the global photovoltaic cell industry is continuing to concentrate in China.

The market share of N-type battery cells is gradually increasing, and it is expected to surpass P-type battery cells and become mainstream in the future

According to different substrates (back electrodes of photovoltaic cells), photovoltaic cells can be mainly divided into P-type cells and N-type cells. Due to its early development, mature manufacturing process, and low cost, P-type solar cells are widely used in the photovoltaic cell market in China and are the mainstream products in the photovoltaic cell market. However, the photoelectric conversion efficiency and theoretical upper limit of P-type solar cells are relatively low. In order to further improve the efficiency of photovoltaic cells, N-type solar cells have begun to receive attention due to their higher conversion efficiency, no light decay, and good weak light effect. Data shows that in recent years, the market share of P-type battery cells has gradually been taken over by N-type battery cells, and the market share has declined from 91% in 2021 to 71% in 2023; The market share of N-type battery cells has been increasing year by year, reaching 25.6% in 2023. In the future, as the manufacturing process of N-type solar cells gradually matures and production costs decrease, their market share is expected to surpass P-type solar cells and become the mainstream product in China's photovoltaic cell market.

4. The Matthew effect in the photovoltaic cell industry is gradually becoming prominent, and market share is continuing to concentrate on top companies

In recent years, due to the high prosperity and great development potential of the photovoltaic cell industry, it has attracted many enterprises such as Tongwei Co., Ltd., Aixu Co., Ltd., Runyang Co., Ltd., and Zhongrun Solar to lay out, and market competition has become increasingly fierce. At present, the concentration of China's photovoltaic cell industry is relatively low. In recent years, its CR5 has always been below 60%. However, with the gradual emergence of the Matthew effect of "the strong always remain strong", its CR5 has shown an upward trend year by year, rising from 29.5% in 2018 to 60% in 2023, and its market share is continuing to concentrate on top enterprises. From a corporate perspective, Tongwei Corporation is a leading enterprise in the photovoltaic cell market in China and globally, with long-term production capacity and shipment volume ranking first in the Chinese and global markets; Aixu Corporation has consistently ranked second in the Chinese and global photovoltaic cell market in terms of production capacity and shipment volume.

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