Analysis of China's Lithium Battery Positive Electrode Material Industry

Driven by the growth of market demand, the shipment volume of lithium battery cathode materials in China has been continuously increasing in recent years. Among them, lithium iron phosphate materials have contributed to the main increment of the lithium-ion battery cathode material market, and the proportion of shipments in the lithium-ion battery cathode material market continues to increase. At the same time, the proportion of ternary material shipments in the lithium-ion battery cathode material market continues to shrink. Affected by the decline in the price of lithium battery cathode materials, its output value has been continuously declining since 2023, and the output value in 2024 is less than half of its peak period. In addition, due to factors such as intensified price competition and the decline in upstream raw material prices, many listed companies in China's lithium battery positive electrode material industry will face performance pressure in 2024, resulting in a double decrease in operating income and attributable net profit or a negative attributable net profit.

1. Overview of positive electrode materials for lithium batteries

The positive electrode material of lithium-ion batteries is an important component that directly affects the performance of the battery. In the cost composition of lithium-ion batteries, it accounts for the largest proportion, about 30% -40%. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of positive electrode materials for lithium batteries in China mainly includes raw materials such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, as well as auxiliary materials such as conductive agents and adhesives; The midstream is the production and supply of positive electrode materials for lithium batteries. According to their chemical composition, they are mainly divided into lithium cobalt oxide materials, lithium manganese oxide materials, lithium iron phosphate materials, and ternary materials (including nickel cobalt manganese oxide lithium and nickel cobalt aluminum oxide lithium); Downstream is the application field, and lithium battery cathode materials are widely used in lithium-ion batteries, with application terminals involving industries such as new energy vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics.

2. The shipment volume of positive electrode materials for lithium batteries continues to rise

Benefiting from the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage industries, the shipment volume of lithium-ion batteries in China has been continuously increasing in recent years, rising from 117GWh in 2019 to 1214.6GWh in 2024, providing sustained market demand growth for the development of the lithium-ion battery cathode material industry. Driven by the growth of market demand, the shipment volume of lithium battery cathode materials in China has been continuously increasing in recent years, rising from 407000 tons in 2019 to 3.292 million tons in 2024, with an average annual compound growth rate of 51.91%.

3. The shipment volume and proportion of lithium iron phosphate materials continue to rise

From the perspective of segmented products, lithium iron phosphate materials and ternary materials are the mainstream varieties in China's lithium battery cathode material market, accounting for over 90% of shipments in 2024. Among them, lithium iron phosphate material has the advantages of good safety, high cycle life, and low price, and is widely used in the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries. Ternary materials have the advantages of high energy density and specific capacity, and their end use applications are similar to lithium iron phosphate materials. But compared to lithium iron phosphate materials, ternary materials are more expensive. Therefore, when considering costs, downstream manufacturers will prefer to choose lithium iron phosphate.

In the past four years, China's lithium iron phosphate materials have been increasingly favored by downstream markets, with shipments rapidly increasing from 455000 tons in 2021 to 2.427 million tons in 2024, with an average annual compound growth rate of 74.72%, higher than the overall growth level of the lithium battery cathode material market (with an average annual compound growth rate of 44.37% during the same period), contributing the main increment. At the same time, its share of shipments in the lithium-ion battery cathode material market continues to increase, rising from 41.59% in 2021 to 73.72% in 2024. Affected by factors such as cost optimization by car companies, the shipment volume of ternary materials in China will decline in 2024, reaching about 643000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.16%. In addition, due to the compression of lithium iron phosphate, its share of shipments in the lithium-ion battery cathode material market continues to shrink, from 38.57% in 2021 to 19.53% in 2024.

4. Due to the impact of price decline, the output value of positive electrode materials for lithium batteries has significantly decreased

In 2022, due to the shortage of lithium mines and the significant increase in upstream raw material prices such as lithium carbonate, the price of positive electrode materials for lithium batteries also rose sharply. The average price increased from 53000 yuan/ton in 2021 to 145000 yuan/ton in 2022, an increase of over 150%. In this context, the output value of lithium battery cathode materials in China experienced explosive growth in 2022, reaching a historical high of 439.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 209.44%. However, starting from 2023, the output value of positive electrode materials for lithium batteries in China has continuously declined, reaching about 209.62 billion yuan in 2024, less than half of that in 2022. The main reason for this is that, on the one hand, as lithium prices gradually return to rationality and there is an oversupply of materials such as lithium carbonate, the upstream raw material prices of lithium battery cathode materials continue to decline. On the other hand, with the expansion of production capacity, the supply and demand of lithium battery cathode materials market are gradually imbalanced, intensifying price competition and further driving down the price of lithium battery cathode materials.

5. Multiple listed companies are under pressure in terms of performance, with a decline or negative net profit attributable to them

Affected by factors such as intensified price competition and the decline in upstream raw material prices, the performance of many listed companies in China's lithium battery cathode material industry will be under pressure in 2024. According to the performance reports or forecasts released by various listed companies, the operating income and attributable net profit of many enterprises such as Rongbai Technology and Xiamen Tungsten New Energy have both declined; Many enterprises such as Minmetals New Energy, Zhenhua New Materials, and Mengguli have negative net profits and are in a loss making state. Among them, Hunan Yuneng's shipment of lithium iron phosphate ranks first in China, accounting for nearly 30% in 2024. According to the forecast, its net profit attributable to 2024 decreased by 64.57% -58.24% year-on-year. Rongbai Technology's shipment volume of ternary materials ranks first in China, accounting for nearly 20% in 2024. According to the report, its operating revenue and attributable net profit decreased by 33.43% and 49.69% year-on-year in 2024.

The report "In depth Analysis of the Current Status and Future Investment Forecast of China's Lithium Battery Positive Electrode Materials Industry (2025-2032)" covers the latest industry data, market hotspots, policy planning, competitive intelligence, market outlook forecasts, investment strategies, and more. Further supplemented by a large number of intuitive charts, it helps companies in this industry accurately grasp the development trend of the industry, market opportunities, and correctly formulate their competitive and investment strategies.

This report is based on authoritative data on lithium battery cathode materials from channels such as the National Bureau of Statistics, the General Administration of Customs, and the National Information Center. It combines the industry environment and conducts market research and analysis from multiple perspectives, including theory, practice, macro, and micro.

Industry reports are an important decision-making basis for industry enterprises, related investment companies, and government departments to accurately grasp industry development trends, understand industry competition patterns, avoid operational and investment risks, and formulate correct competitive and investment strategic decisions.

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