Analysis of China's Carbon Fiber Industry

1. Carbon fiber is the 'king of new materials in the 21st century'

According to the "In depth Research and Investment Prospect Analysis Report on the Development of China's Carbon Fiber Industry (2025-2032)" released by Guanyan Report Network, carbon fiber refers to high-strength and high modulus fibers made from acrylic and viscose fibers as raw materials, which are oxidized and carbonized at high temperatures and have a carbon content of over 90%. It ranks first among all chemical fibers in terms of high temperature resistance. The characteristics of carbon fiber include lightweight and high strength, high temperature and corrosion resistance, good thermal and electrical conductivity, excellent mechanical properties, ease of processing, and design flexibility. From a specific application perspective, carbon fiber has a very low density and can maintain stable mechanical properties under extreme conditions. It also has good fatigue resistance and high vibration attenuation, making it suitable for applications that require high strength and durability. It also has significant advantages in reducing weight and improving structural strength.

Carbon fiber can be divided into small fiber bundles and large fiber bundles according to the number of fibers. The small fiber bundle has excellent performance, but the cost is relatively high. The development of carbon fiber was initially applied in the aerospace field, and the performance of small fiber bundles can better meet the needs of aerospace and military composite materials. However, due to cost constraints, it is difficult to achieve widespread application in fields such as wind turbine blades. Under the premise of maintaining the excellent performance of carbon fiber, large fiber bundles can significantly reduce costs by increasing single line production capacity, opening the door for carbon fiber to be widely used in industrial and civilian fields.

2. The production capacity of China's carbon fiber industry continues to expand, and the utilization rate of production capacity has fallen slightly

In recent years, against the backdrop of booming downstream development, various capital and enterprises have poured into the carbon fiber industry in large numbers, with investment enthusiasm continuing to rise and production capacity significantly increasing. China's carbon fiber production capacity increased from 26700 tons in 2019 to 135500 tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 38%. The capacity utilization rate fell back to 44% in 2024. The total production of carbon fiber in China will show a high-speed growth trend before 2022, increasing from 12000 tons in 2019 to 48000 tons in 2022. The growth rate will slow down from 2023, and the total production will reach 59000 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8%.

From the perspective of industry structure, China's carbon fiber production capacity is relatively concentrated, with Jilin Chemical Fiber and Zhongfu Shenying having significant advantages in production capacity scale. According to data, in 2024, the production capacity market share of Jilin Chemical Fiber and Zhongfu Shenying will be 24% and 21% respectively.

3. The demand for carbon fiber industry in China has slightly improved, and actual consumption has returned to positive growth

In recent years, with the proposal of the "carbon neutrality and carbon peak" strategy, the main downstream field of carbon fiber - the wind power industry - has rapidly emerged, and the demand side is also increasingly strong. Looking at 2024, China's demand for carbon fiber has slightly improved, and actual consumption has returned to positive growth.

According to data, the consumption of carbon fiber in China will grow rapidly before 2022, but demand will decline from 2023. In 2024, the final inventory of carbon fiber in China will increase by about 4190 tons compared to the initial inventory. Based on this, it is estimated that the actual consumption of carbon fiber in China in 2024 will be about 56000 tons, an increase of 5% year-on-year. From the perspective of consumption structure, wind turbine blades, sports and leisure, carbon carbon composite materials, etc. are the core downstream industries, with demand proportions of 38%, 23%, and 11% respectively in 2024.

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